Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 2.290610 2.431943 2.581511 2.752272 2.942693 3.149517 3.392527
2025-06-08 2.085028 2.278577 2.493795 2.753280 3.061019 3.418781 3.872990
2025-06-15 1.969428 2.195361 2.455426 2.781616 3.186864 3.683962 4.357171
2025-06-22 1.847042 2.087714 2.371615 2.738085 3.209512 3.812401 4.672814
2025-06-29 1.744778 1.993895 2.293562 2.689546 3.213946 3.908990 4.948280
2025-07-06 1.652115 1.904557 2.213021 2.628471 3.192073 3.962138 5.161753
2025-07-13 1.613426 1.878827 2.209101 2.664074 3.299503 4.200963 5.680823
2025-07-20 1.583307 1.861267 2.213183 2.708575 3.420447 4.469303 6.288221
2025-07-27 1.557337 1.846932 2.219555 2.755034 3.546130 4.756640 6.979234
2025-08-03 1.510518 1.802718 2.183093 2.737991 3.574797 4.892553 7.423347
2025-08-10 1.466791 1.760447 2.146748 2.718070 3.596162 5.016887 7.867517
2025-08-17 1.423895 1.717392 2.107044 2.690340 3.602202 5.114420 8.275987
2025-08-24 1.383054 1.676242 2.069035 2.664186 3.610701 5.220744 8.736837
2025-08-31 1.353742 1.649634 2.050114 2.665285 3.663130 5.411695 9.437466
2025-09-07 1.334546 1.635971 2.048566 2.692128 3.759645 5.695929 10.447999
2025-09-14 1.296080 1.594160 2.004785 2.650891 3.736565 5.746158 10.874305
2025-09-21 1.258484 1.552383 1.959476 2.604882 3.701680 5.768648 11.233438
2025-09-28 1.219473 1.507517 1.908148 2.546950 3.641880 5.734041 11.421849
2025-10-05 1.208679 1.502053 1.914227 2.580727 3.747757 6.056937 12.810401
2025-10-12 1.200725 1.500216 1.925357 2.622923 3.872119 6.439015 14.599807
2025-10-19 1.193538 1.499126 1.937367 2.666949 4.003554 6.860060 16.820611
2025-10-26 1.171235 1.475463 1.914260 2.650802 4.017883 7.007547 18.045083
2025-11-02 1.149297 1.451738 1.890253 2.631923 4.025325 7.139497 19.300564